Navigating Uncertainty in Science and Policy
Navigating Uncertainty
In a world that often demands certainty, we find ourselves navigating through waters of perpetual ambiguity. In the second installment of The Compass Series, we explore the critical role of uncertainty in science, policy, and our everyday lives.
Uncertainty is not a flaw in our knowledge systems – it's a fundamental feature. Scientific progress thrives at the edges of what we know, in that fertile ground where questions outnumber answers. The most transformative discoveries often emerge not from certainty but from embracing what we don't yet understand. Yet in policy contexts, uncertainty presents unique challenges. How do we make decisions when the data is incomplete? When should we act despite lingering questions?
Then there is our human response to uncertainty, which is as varied as humanity itself. Some find it paralyzing, retreating to the comfort of familiar beliefs or oversimplified certainties. Others might see uncertainty as intriguing and lean into curiosity and possibility. Our brains often seek patterns and closure, which can lead us to premature conclusions when confronted with ambiguity. Yet those who seem to be resilient when faced with uncertainty learn to hold multiple possibilities in mind, to sit comfortably in the space of "not knowing," and to make thoughtful decisions despite incomplete information.
As we navigate an increasingly complex world, cultivating this relationship with uncertainty becomes not just a scientific skill but a vital life practice.
LISTEN: Embracing Uncertainty with Christie Aschwanden
Christie Aschwanden is an award-winning author, journalist, and the host and producer of Uncertain, a podcast from Scientific American about uncertainty in science. She sits down with Institute Executive Director, Kristan Uhlenbrock, to discuss the critical role of uncertainty in science and our everyday lives.
Christie is the author of the New York Times bestseller, Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn From the Strange Science of Recovery. She’s also co-host of Emerging Form, a podcast about the creative process. She’s the former lead science writer at FiveThirtyEight and was previously a health columnist for The Washington Post. Christie is a frequent contributor to The New York Times and has been a contributing editor for Runner’s World and a contributing writer for Bicycling.
WATCH: How Scientific Uncertainty Shapes Decisions and Policy
“There's real uncertainty in all kinds of scientific studies...But a lot of times, uncertainty is used to stop us from taking actions we need to do. It's a convenient way to say, ‘well, I don't know, so I'm not going to do it.’” Nidhi Kalra
Our 2022 Symposium, Living with Uncertainty, explored how to apply scientific principles and develop equitable policies in the face of incomplete or, at times, even contradictory information. This thoughtful Symposium panel discusses the myriad of ways scientific uncertainty is used in policy decisions, both with positive and problematic outcomes. Moderated by Caitlyn Kim, Public Affairs Reporter, Colorado Public Radio, the panel features Sarah Kapnick, Chief Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Nidhi Kalra, Chief Information Scientist, RAND Corporation, and journalist, author, and editor Christie Aschwanden.
Watch
READ: Uncommon Ground: How the uncertainty sparked by judicious conflict fuels innovation
"Curbing the innate human longing for cozy cohesion demands constant vigilance and a ceaseless willingness to court uncertainty."
In an article adapted from her book, Uncertain: The Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure, author Maggie Jackson explores how groups that embrace conflict, dissent and criticism can use that friction to successfully explore the unknown. The goal is to reach uncommon ground, "where the exploratory work of not-knowing together can begin," she explains. When we reach this level of collaboration, we can challenge each other's assumptions, surface inaccuracies in our thinking, find missing evidence, and appreciate multiple perspectives because we have created a safe environment for disagreement.
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TOOL: The Rumsfeld Matrix
"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know." Donald Rumsfeld
During the Iraq War, in response to a question about weapons of mass destruction, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously defined three types of knowledge: known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. A fourth, the unknown known, was added later by the philosopher Slavoj Zizek. Since then, this framework has been embraced across domains as a helpful way to understand and evaluate uncertainty. Plotted as a 2x2 grid along the axes "Awareness" and "Understanding," the Rumsfeld Matrix illuminates how different types of uncertainty arise—from risks we anticipate but poorly understand, to challenges we have yet to recognize—and helps decision-makers tailor their strategies accordingly.
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ENGAGE: The Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale
How do you respond to uncertainty? Find out by completing the online version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS), in this English adaptation of the French questionnaire. Psychometric research suggests that intolerance of uncertainty may be very important in understanding the psychology of worry. The IUS measures four different areas that "represent the idea that uncertainty is stressful and upsetting, uncertainty leads to the inability to act, uncertain events are negative and should be avoided, and being uncertain is unfair," according to researchers. It will be five minutes well spent.
Engage
BONUS: Communicating Uncertainty Video Short
In this creative nine-minute video from the University of British Columbia’s Science Writing Resource team, learn the best practices for scientists and science writers to communicate their findings to a broad audience. You’ll get the five main tips to help ensure you neither mislead nor confuse other people when you communicate uncertainty in scientific literature and research.
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